Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022?
Basic
2
Ṁ223Jan 1
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
50% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
60% chance
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
49% chance
Will PredictIt think Joe Biden is the most likely 2024 Dem nominee by the end of 2022?
77% chance
If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).
49% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
48% chance
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2025?
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?"
49% chance
"At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?"
57% chance