"Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?"
Basic
2
Ṁ50Dec 31
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.
This is question #6 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?
51% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
Will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be blocked or sanctioned by 2023?
36% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?"
51% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance