Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February? | Manifold

Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?

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Mar 1

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1M

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Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine

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Yeah Metaculus is 50-50 on EOY. I have to make some big bets here. Must be less than half by end of February.

I was originally thinking in terms of overt military presence, not saboteurs. I'm not sure what to do if saboteurs become overt. If things get contentious, I'll seriously consider opening another market to help define terms.

if you resolve this as yes because of Donetsk/Luhansk I will never trust you again

Sorry, I thought I had.

Can you add the hashtag to the description? #RussiaUkraine

#RussiaUkraine

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